“After the soaring volume that defined 2020 through the first half of 2022, the final months of last year showed a market that had run out of both inventory and energy. Q1, 2023 followed this path as transaction volume hit all-time lows, ultimately bottoming out in April once winter rendered the sparse available inventory virtually unshowable amid historic snowfall.”

“Listing inventory remains historically low at just over 300 properties for sale; approximately 3 months of supply based upon the last 12 months of absorption. The number of homes for sale is likely to rise over the next 30-45 days as homeowners contemplating the future utility of their second home reconcile with the aftermath of an historic winter.”

The current state of Tahoe – Truckee real estate reflects a market struggling to find identity. Buyers and sellers both perceive leverage over one another leading to conflicting metrics that reflect record low transaction volume, an equally tight supply of available listings, general pricing resiliency and increasing time on market.

“Historic snow, bank failures, road closures and painfully thin supply merged in March to create one of the quietest months for residential closings in the recent history for Tahoe-Truckee real estate. Yet, despite only 48 residential transactions, average and median pricing for the month were the highest since December of 2021 while standing inventory continued to fall for the 7th successive month.”

“The extended winter, now virtually guaranteed with snowpack at 150% or greater than full season averages, will undoubtedly drive increased visitation to the region for the remaining 6 weeks of ski season. Until listing inventory accelerates, market results are likely to look substantially the same as the opening months of 2023. A much livelier Q2 – Q4 appears in store. “

“A prevailing sense of optimism for Tahoe Truckee real estate at the outset of 2023 overrides lackluster data from a historically slow January. Abundant snow has Tahoe showing in an optimal winter condition delivering interest in mountain lifestyle…”

“Consistent with surging prices, the share of luxury sales was historic in 2022. 54% of all sales were above $1,000,000; the first time a majority of transactions eclipsed this mark. At the ultra-high end, transactions exceeding $10,000,000 more than tripled any previous year other than 2021.”

“93 residential transactions is a historically mediocre result however it perfectly matches October during a time that historically experiences a significant seasonal drop off. That these 93 transactions yielded over $130,000,000, over $1.4 million per transaction, demonstrates pricing resiliency in a market absent any visible signs of distress.”

“In stark contrast to prevailing assumptions, values for real estate in the Tahoe Truckee region rose in October. While the quantity of transactions has declined market wide, certain communities wherein supply remains constrained are seeing resolute pricing stability.”

“The early weeks of Q4 are typically the apex for residential closings. The market has undeniably cooled from the fever pitch of the preceding two years, however an accurate snapshot of exactly how far the market will adjust is still undetermined…”

“August was the strongest closing month of 2022 for residential closings. In a typical year, this news would elicit a shrug given the seasonal rhythms of a resort market in which summer window shopping coincides with pre-winter purchases culminating in peak sales August through October…”

“The overall velocity of sales has unquestionably slowed combined with a meaningful leap in inventory. While neither has changed in a way that inverts supply and demand away from the seller’s favor, conditions over the last few years have been so dramatically skewed as to create a stark difference at the outset of H2, 2022.”

“While the total number of active residential listings has nearly tripled from the beginning of the year, total supply remains at less than a 3-month absorption rate. Thus, this increase, typical of Q2 once ski season has come to an end, is the equivalent of slowing from 120 mph to 85 mph in a 65 miler per hour zone.”

“While the threat of recession, rising interest rates, and office re-openings among other potential disruptions certainly exist, it appears that the Tahoe market is still calibrating to a new reality in which workplaces no longer carry the burden of full-time presence.”

“The median price to date in 2022 is $1,100,000, 75% higher than 2019 and 18% over the same period last year.”

“This moment, wherein demand is overwhelming supply by a factor of four, would be one such instance except for extremely constrained supply…”

“As was the narrative throughout 2021, residential listings stood at an all-time low of 137 at the start of January, only to dwindle to a meager 104 by the end of the month.”

We've now received over 200" of snow in December, shattering the previous 170 record of 179". This storm alone deposited 135" on Donner Summit!

Last week I was riding mountain bikes and playing tennis in shorts and now today, I am writing to you, looking out our office window to 14 inches of new snow, bringing our 3 day storm total up to now 75 inches and counting...or said differently over 6 FEET!

“Pricing in November remained rock steady with values established throughout 2021 with an average price of $1,254,000 and a median value of $905,000; roughly an 8% jump year-over-year for both metrics.”